the energy report - Getting Blown Away.
Geschrieben von Phil Flynn I Alaron Research • Montag, 9. November 2009 • Kategorie: Rohstoffe
The oil market is getting blown in different directions. On one hand, Friday’s dismal jobs report would seem to suggest that demand for oil will be bad in the US. That drove oil lower on Friday. Yet on the other hand the weak jobs number means the Fed should keep the stimulus machine stimulating. In fact if we see more weak data it may even raise the possibility of more quantitative easing in the future. That would be dollar bearish and commodity bullish. That seems to be one of the reasons that oil is rallying this morning. Another reason is weather.
Hurricane Ida is a killer storm and is shutting down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group, LLC says that hurricane Ida is currently a category one storm (90 mph sustained) but is weakening rapidly as it travels northward through the central Gulf. The Commodity Weather Group says that, “While the Hurricane Center is being cautious by forecasting hurricane strength at landfall, the pronounced overnight weakening trend suggests it should enter the far eastern production region as a tropical storm at best. A combination of much cooler water temperatures and wind shear should continue to weaken the feature.”
At this point it seem unlikely that there will be any major damage to the facilities in the Gulf yet the market has to be cautious. It is hard to determine how much of the rally in oil is Ida related and how much is it is dollar related.
Yet at the same time it seems that OPEC is pumping more oil. Mark Shenk With Bloomberg News reports that, "OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near-record inventories and threatening speculators betting on $100 crude with losses." Shenk says that the number of options contracts to buy oil at $100 by March almost quadrupled in October and increased another 5.9 percent so far this month. As traders piled in, OPEC boosted production 4 percent, or 1.1 million barrels a day, since March amid the worst global recession since World War II. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has targeted $75 oil as a fair price for consumers and producers and has the capacity to increase pumping by about 50 percent, or 4 million barrels a day, enough for all of Brazil. The prospect of more supply comes with inventories in industrial countries already the highest since 1998, when oil collapsed to $10.”
Bloomberg is also reporting that, "China, the world’s second-largest energy user, will raise gasoline and diesel prices by 480 yuan a ton from tomorrow to reflect higher crude oil costs."
We are playing the swings! If you want to get involved just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at [email protected] to open your account today! Also check out the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day! And if you're interested in buying gold and silver check out our link for our innovative approach. http://www.pfgpreciousmetals.com/index.aspx?ID=638597e5-633d-449a-9787-f7aea282458c. Make sure you are signed up for my daily energy blast where we will soon be offering special extras!
We're long December crude from apprx 7727 - raise stop to 7745!
Buy December RBOB at 19000 - stop 18800.
Buy December heating oil at 19700 - stop 19500.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
[email protected]
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
Hurricane Ida is a killer storm and is shutting down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group, LLC says that hurricane Ida is currently a category one storm (90 mph sustained) but is weakening rapidly as it travels northward through the central Gulf. The Commodity Weather Group says that, “While the Hurricane Center is being cautious by forecasting hurricane strength at landfall, the pronounced overnight weakening trend suggests it should enter the far eastern production region as a tropical storm at best. A combination of much cooler water temperatures and wind shear should continue to weaken the feature.”
At this point it seem unlikely that there will be any major damage to the facilities in the Gulf yet the market has to be cautious. It is hard to determine how much of the rally in oil is Ida related and how much is it is dollar related.
Yet at the same time it seems that OPEC is pumping more oil. Mark Shenk With Bloomberg News reports that, "OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near-record inventories and threatening speculators betting on $100 crude with losses." Shenk says that the number of options contracts to buy oil at $100 by March almost quadrupled in October and increased another 5.9 percent so far this month. As traders piled in, OPEC boosted production 4 percent, or 1.1 million barrels a day, since March amid the worst global recession since World War II. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has targeted $75 oil as a fair price for consumers and producers and has the capacity to increase pumping by about 50 percent, or 4 million barrels a day, enough for all of Brazil. The prospect of more supply comes with inventories in industrial countries already the highest since 1998, when oil collapsed to $10.”
Bloomberg is also reporting that, "China, the world’s second-largest energy user, will raise gasoline and diesel prices by 480 yuan a ton from tomorrow to reflect higher crude oil costs."
We are playing the swings! If you want to get involved just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at [email protected] to open your account today! Also check out the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day! And if you're interested in buying gold and silver check out our link for our innovative approach. http://www.pfgpreciousmetals.com/index.aspx?ID=638597e5-633d-449a-9787-f7aea282458c. Make sure you are signed up for my daily energy blast where we will soon be offering special extras!
We're long December crude from apprx 7727 - raise stop to 7745!
Buy December RBOB at 19000 - stop 18800.
Buy December heating oil at 19700 - stop 19500.
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
800-935-6487
312-563-8344
[email protected]
Phil Flynn is Energy Analyst and General Market Analyst with PFGBEST (www.pfgbest.com). Phil is one of the world’s leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil’s market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, traders and global media.
Because he has been available to media around the clock, even during some of the most turbulent market periods in history, and because he has built a solid reputation for accuracy in his market analysis and forecasts, through thousands of interviews and broadcast appearances for more than a decade, Phil Flynn has become a headline-making name even as he continues to provide expert advice and customer care to his proprietary trading account clients.
Media highlights include: CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS with Katie Couric, NBC’s “Today Show” and “Nightly News with Tom Brokaw”, FOX’s “O’Reilly Factor”, PBS’s “The Newshour with Jim Lehrer” and “Nightly Business Report”, MSNBC’s “The News with Brian Williams”, Wall Street Journal Report, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor’s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, National Public Radio’s Marketplace, a chat with the President of the United States, and many more venues.
You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pfgbest.com.
PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, trader education, market research, and direct online futures trading through its BESTDirect™ platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.
Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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